Track How Power
Actually Moves
Not as states declare it — as events reveal it. Authority scores, dependency maps, and conflict tracking updated as the world shifts.
Showing 5 of 41 tracked actors
Unnamed Scenario
Low (10–30%)Assassination of President Sheinbaum or a senior cabinet official attributable to CJNG; OR confirmed seizure of a state capital police apparatus in Jalisco or Guanajuato without federal response
Unnamed Scenario
Low (10–30%)Russia achieves either: (a) a ceasefire that locks in territorial gains and reframes as victory; (b) Ukrainian military collapse opening corridor to western Ukraine. Followed by Russian pressure on NATO's eastern flank — most plausible trigger point is Narva (Estonia), a majority-Russian-speaking city on the Russian border where a 'humanitarian intervention' pretext is available. Or Suwalki Gap (Poland-Lithuania) as a land bridge probe.
Unnamed Scenario
Very High (>70%)ALREADY TRIGGERED Feb 28 2026 — Iran struck UAE (hotel Palm Jumeirah, 1 killed), Bahrain (US Navy HQ), Kuwait, and targeted Qatar (Al Udeid), Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan. Scenario continues: sustained strikes expanding to civilian economic targets: airports, ports, oil terminals, desalination plants
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Authority × Reach
Every actor scored on two dimensions. Internal control and external influence — updated as events unfold.
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Dependency mapping
Power doesn't move in isolation. See which actors depend on others and how disturbances cascade.
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Score trajectories
Not a snapshot. A living record of how influence rises, stalls, and collapses over time.