Taiwan
PF Score
56
Authority × 0.6 + Reach × 0.4
Authority Score
68
Capacity to coerce
Reach Score
38
Influence projection
Score Trajectory
Taiwan's Authority Score reflects a functioning liberal democracy with strong institutional coherence, an effective military, and robust economic governance — placing it above Venezuela (38) and Pakis…
Score Reasoning
Taiwan's Authority Score reflects a functioning liberal democracy with strong institutional coherence, an effective military, and robust economic governance — placing it above Venezuela (38) and Pakistan (52) on internal control, but below Israel (74) given the persistent existential threat from PRC military encirclement and the psychological-political weight of contested sovereignty. The linked event is the critical driver for Reach: China's demonstrated structural military primacy across carrier aviation, stealth, and strike domains — validated partially by Pakistan's combat use of Chinese systems in May 2025 — materially narrows Taiwan's external influence space; academic modeling showing 45% U.S. force attrition in the first 30 days of a Taiwan contingency degrades the credibility of the U.S. deterrence umbrella that underwrites Taiwan's diplomatic and economic leverage. Reach Score of 38 places Taiwan above the pure-domestic-confinement floor, reflecting meaningful semiconductor-sector structural power (TSMC as a geopolitical instrument) and active diplomatic engagement with democratic partners, but well below actors with autonomous force-projection capacity, anchored between Pakistan (38) and Saudi Arabia (48) given its lack of formal alliances and shrinking formal recognition.
Recent Events
China Demonstrates Structural Military Primacy Across Multiple Capability Domains
May 2025A convergence of signals — China's September 2024 Victory Day parade unveiling new carrier aircraft, loyal wingman drones, anti-ship missiles, and an uncrewed submarine; December 2024 stealth aircraft test flights; January 2025 satellite imagery of a command center exceeding the Pentagon tenfold; and a PLA Navy circumnavigation of Australia in February 2025 — collectively indicate China has achieved qualitative military leadership across multiple domains, not merely parity. Academic modeling by Anderson and Press in International Security finds U.S. air bases in Japan and Guam would suffer 45 percent force attrition in the first 30 days of a Taiwan contingency, even under the most favorable scenario. Pakistan's use of Chinese air combat systems against India in May 2025 provided the first limited real-world validation of Chinese export-grade military performance. The PLA's trajectory reflects over 30 years of sustained modernization without a commensurate U.S. response, now reaching an inflection point where an arms race would structurally favor Beijing.