Sudan
PF Score
22
Authority × 0.6 + Reach × 0.4
Authority Score
28
Capacity to coerce
Reach Score
14
Influence projection
Score Trajectory
Sudan's Authority Score reflects a deeply fragmented state where the SAF and RSF contest control across major population centers, with RSF dominance in Darfur accelerating after the El Fasher ceasefir…
Score Reasoning
Sudan's Authority Score reflects a deeply fragmented state where the SAF and RSF contest control across major population centers, with RSF dominance in Darfur accelerating after the El Fasher ceasefire collapse — the government exercises nominal authority but cannot enforce territorial control or protect civilians at scale, placing it well below Venezuela (38) and above the Hamas floor (18). The Reach Score is near-floor: Sudan has no meaningful external projection capacity, no proxy network, and is itself the object of external manipulation (UAE financing RSF, U.S.-led Quad mediation), making it a recipient rather than a projector of geopolitical influence — scored above the Yemen floor (8) only because the SAF retains some international diplomatic standing as a recognized government. Calibrated between the Yemen floor (PF 10) and Venezuela (PF 31.6), the ceasefire collapse event is unambiguously authority-widening, confirming scores in the fragmented-state range.
Recent Events
RSF Breaks Quad-Brokered Ceasefire Within 24 Hours of El Fasher Truce
Nov 2024The RSF accepted a humanitarian truce brokered by the U.S.-led Quad — comprising the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — following mass atrocities in El Fasher, including an attack on a maternity hospital that killed over 460 people. The ceasefire collapsed within 24 hours as RSF forces conducted drone strikes on a military base and power station in Khartoum. The breakdown exposes the structural contradiction of the UAE — a documented RSF financier and weapons supplier — serving simultaneously as a Quad mediator. El Fasher's fall would eliminate the last SAF stronghold in Darfur, representing a decisive territorial shift in RSF favor. The episode illustrates how mediation architecture can be captured by a conflict party to shield it from accountability while providing diplomatic cover.