Mexico

Mexico sits structurally above Venezuela (Authority 32, Reach 18) and below Pakistan (Authority 48, Reach 38) — a mid-contested state where cartel networks constitute genuine parallel governance across significant territory, degrading effective federal authority well below the formal state baseline, while AMLO/Sheinbaum-era security strategy has failed to consolidate control in key regions. The U.S. structural dependency (83 PF) is Mexico's defining reach constraint: USMCA integration, remittance flows, and border interdependence bind Mexico tightly to Washington, but the Trump maximum-pressure campaign across the Caribbean — IEEPA invocations, Maduro's capture, Cuba blockade — signals a coercive posture toward regional actors that raises Mexico's exposure and constrains its diplomatic maneuvering room, compressing rather than expanding its already limited external reach. With no patron, no proxy network, and a dominant neighbor increasingly willing to weaponize economic and legal instruments, Mexico's reach remains modest and largely reactive — above Venezuela but well below the UAE or Saudi Arabia tier.