Iraq (PMF)
Paramilitary
PF Score
24
Authority × 0.6 + Reach × 0.4
Authority Score
30
Capacity to coerce
Reach Score
14
Influence projection
Score Trajectory
Iraq's PMF retains meaningful domestic authority as an embedded paramilitary structure within Iraq's security apparatus — controlling territory, personnel, and political patronage networks that predat…
Iraqi militias losing central IRGC coordination as patron network fractures. Recent intel indicates proxy networks receiving degraded strategic direction during command vacuum. PMF operational coheren…
Score Reasoning
PMF's Authority sits at the baseline for this hybrid type — it exercises real paramilitary and political power within Iraq, embedded in state institutions since 2016 formalization, but competes with the Iraqi state, Kurdish factions, and U.S.-aligned forces, placing it in the contested-to-fragmented range above Hezbollah (22) but well below Taliban (48) which holds consolidated territorial control. Reach is constrained by the patron ceiling (34) and by the IRGC's own degraded projection capacity — PMF has no meaningful independent external reach beyond occasional cross-border strikes into Syria or against Kurdish positions, and with no proxy network of its own, its influence is entirely domestically concentrated, scoring below the IRGC peer (29) and consistent with the Hezbollah peer (18) given PMF's reach is even more geographically confined to the Iraqi theater. Calibrated against the Tier 5-6 anchor band — PMF sits structurally above Hamas post-Oct 7 (Authority 18) on domestic grip, but its Reach mirrors that degraded tier given patron fragility and absence of independent operational architecture.