Brazil
PF Score
52
Authority × 0.6 + Reach × 0.4
Authority Score
58
Capacity to coerce
Reach Score
42
Influence projection
Score Trajectory
Brazil is a large, institutionally functional federal democracy with no meaningful domestic challenger to state authority, but faces persistent governance friction — endemic corruption, ungoverned Ama…
Brazil sits structurally above Venezuela (collapsed to Authority 22) and Pakistan (Authority 48) but below the UAE (Authority 62) and well below China and Israel — a large, democratically consolidated…
Score Reasoning
Brazil sits structurally above Venezuela (collapsed to Authority 22) and Pakistan (Authority 48) but below the UAE (Authority 62) and well below China and Israel — a large, democratically consolidated state with meaningful internal control but chronic governance fragility, regional inequality, and institutional friction that keeps it out of the 60+ band. On Reach, Brazil anchors near Saudi Arabia (Reach 47) and above Pakistan (Reach 38): it is the dominant South American economy with real MERCOSUR and BRICS diplomatic weight, but the Venezuela intervention is a direct signal that Brazil's bid for regional leadership failed — Brasília could not coordinate a Latin American response, Maduro was extracted anyway, and a U.S. protectorate now sits on Brazil's northern border, structurally subordinating the region to Washington's unilateral posture. That mixed signal compresses Brazil's Reach modestly below the baseline rather than boosting it, landing at 42 — meaningfully above Pakistan's 38 given Brazil's larger economic footprint and multilateral engagement (UN reform advocacy, COP hosting, BRICS), but below Saudi Arabia's 47 given the demonstrated inability to shape outcomes in its own hemisphere.
Recent Events
U.S. Military Extraction of Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela
Jan 2026U.S. forces physically removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from Caracas, ending his tenure through direct military intervention rather than diplomatic or electoral pressure. The action followed the collapse of regional mediation efforts after the fraudulent July 2024 election, during which Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and the United States failed to apply meaningful pressure on Maduro. The intervention establishes a de facto U.S. protectorate over Venezuela under acting President Delcy Rodríguez, with Venezuelan oil and resources effectively under U.S. receivership. The event signals a shift in Trump's 'Americas First' posture toward active enforcement of hemispheric dominance, with Venezuela serving as a precedent for potential future interventions. Latin America's inability to coordinate a regional response both precipitated the intervention and leaves the region structurally exposed to further unilateral U.S. action.