Afghanistan (Taliban)
PF Score
36
Authority × 0.6 + Reach × 0.4
Authority Score
48
Capacity to coerce
Reach Score
18
Influence projection
Score Trajectory
Taliban exercises consolidated de facto control over Afghan territory with no meaningful armed domestic rival capable of threatening their core grip — placing Authority well above peers like Amal (32)…
Recent intelligence confirms Taliban conducting cross-border covert operations against Pakistan using TTP proxy with weapons/drone transfers. India pivot diversifying patrons reduces Pakistani leverag…
Score Reasoning
The Taliban controls Afghanistan with meaningful consolidated grip — security forces, revenue streams (customs, narcotics), and judicial-administrative structures are functional across most of the country, placing Authority well above the peer hybrid actors (IRGC at 38, PMF at 34) who operate within larger state structures rather than as the governing entity itself, and anchored between Iran pre-degradation (52) and Saudi Arabia (58) on the low end. Reach is modest but non-trivial: the TTP proxy relationship represents genuine cross-border influence projection into Pakistan, a nuclear state, though that single active proxy network and limited diplomatic recognition cap reach clearly below mid-tier state actors. No patron ceiling applies, and the TTP's active status (PF 26) supports a Reach score above the floor but well within the 20-39 reactive band, calibrated above Yemen Houthi reach (8) and below Iran's pre-degradation reach (48).